Given the persistence of the global pandemic caused by COVID-19, the first round of negotiations will be virtually conducted, with negotiators from the United States and Kenya in talks over the next two weeks during several negotiating sessions covering all aspects of a comprehensive trade agreement. Despite this relationship, Kenyan trade with the United States is relatively small and barely sufficient to rank among the top 100 U.S. trading partners. For example, total annual merchandise trade between the United States and Kenya has been estimated at about $1.1 billion. Kenya was the 98th largest trading partner of the United States. At the time, the United States was Kenya`s third largest export market. This trade disparity has led many to argue that the proposed free trade agreement is a largely symbolic move by the United States to neutralize China`s influence in Africa. When President Bill Clinton signed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2000, African countries gained a competitive advantage by providing unilateral duty-free exports for 6,500 African products to the United States. Twenty years after AGOA`s first adoption, we see that it has created long-term sustainable growth by stimulating the private sector and creating jobs in a region where many countries face high unemployment, the challenges of the region. In addition, Clinton has strengthened the regional approach to the trade agreement for both major players such as South Africa and by smaller players such as Lesotho.

In many ways, this approach is in line with “trade instead of aid.” The goal is therefore to reach an agreement based on AGOA`s objectives and create a basis for the development of trade and investment between the United States and Africa. But Kenya`s unilateral decision to pursue a free trade agreement with the United States has drawn criticism from members of the East African Community (EAC) and the African Free Trade Association (AfCFTA). Both ABCEs and AfCFTA agreements discourage members from entering into bilateral trade agreements with third parties. Although Kenya has downplayed these concerns, the outcome of the negotiations will nevertheless have a significant impact on intra-African trade and Kenya`s influence across the continent. The lack of a free trade agreement guarantee under such conditions would put Kenya in a precarious trade position compared to other ABC countries if AGOA were not extended. World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, in particular the enabling clause, provide for a System of Generalized Preferences (GSP) that allows developed countries to offer non-reciprocal preferential treatment to products originating in developing countries (. B, for example, zero or low tariffs on imports) compared to the most favoured rates (MFN). The preferred country is free to determine which countries and products should be included in their systems. Exports from least developed countries (LDCs) benefit from additional duty-free access to the United States under the U.S. GSP program; However, Kenya is the only EAC country not to be called an LDC by the Un Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

As a result, a large proportion of Kenya`s exports to the United States (textiles and clothing) are not eligible for the GSP and are solely UNDER AGOA. If AGOA is not extended and Kenya does not guarantee the free trade agreement with the United States, other ABC member states will enjoy a strategic trade advantage with the United States. Trade relations between the United States and Africa are being reorganized – and if AGOA continues to be disrupted or replaced by bilateral free trade agreements, this could be a blow to a number of economies in the region.